Are You Pouring The AI Baby Out With The Bathwater? Here's Why This Could Be a Mistake

My close friend and business owner Sven had recently pushed me to a startling observation.

When talking about AI implementation in his 60 people development agency, he said:

"There are so many AI solutions out there, and we've tested a lot of them.

But there's hardly any that truly delivers a significantly better output at the bottom line!"

In short: We've tested a lot, but the improvements are meager!

Have you made the same experience in your business?

Did your team try a lot, but the bottom-line results are meh?

Then you're not alone, as you see.

I even agree with Sven.

BUT, coming from this, you could draw two very different conclusions.

Which of the two conclusions you draw, might heavily affect the fate of your future business!

The first conclusion is: There's not much to expect, so we don't keep monitoring and testing. This whole AI thing is heavily overrated.

The alternative conclusion would be: It didn't yet propel us forward. But who knows. Maybe it just needs another one or two rounds of improvements, and the results for our bottom line could be dramatic.

While with one conclusion you pour out the AI baby with the bathwater, with the other one you stay open and curious about what may come.

Here's my take on in:

First, I wholeheartedly agree that in many areas there's a pure hype and not much to see at the bottom line.

On the other end, I see a reasonable probability that the leaps will come.

Because the improvement has been so visible in so short of a time.

Because unbelievably gigantic resources are poured into making this work.

And, because IF it works better, the effects WILL be dramatic.

Same as with Risk in the negative direction, there are TWO dimensions to weigh in when you see an opportunity:

The first dimension is likability. How likely is it that the risk or opportunity materializes?

The second dimension is effect. IF the risk or opportunity arises, how dramatic will be the effect?

Now, when it gets to your personal assumptions on how big the productivity effects of AI will be for your business, the dog bites its own tail in the following way:

If you assume the productivity effects of AI for your business will not be dramatic, you assume in BOTH dimensions.

Meaning, first you assume that it's not likely to happen AND you assume that anything happening will be of little impact.

The reason could be that you (and I) have not prior experience (which I will refute in a second).

Meaning: If we talk about the opportunity of betting on a tenbagger stock, you and I KNOW that this can happen because it has. Just look at Google, Meta, Apple and other ten-plus-bagger stocks.

But we have not SEEN AI making huge productivity leaps, so there's no prior reference point.

Or is there?

For me, the impact of the upcoming internet is the strongest reference point.

At first, there was a lot of hype and playing around.

Many, if not most, of the early internet businesses and use cases are long-gone on the graveyard of not so successful ideas.

But look what the Internet has become!

Look how deep it has ingrained itself into any facet of our lives and our business.

Sure, it needed to take a second round to get there.

But boy how strong has it come at us!

Now coming from this experience, not opinion, I better guard myself on what AI has in store.

Maybe the current solutions are just hype and playing around, just like much of the internet 97, 98, up to 2001.

But what if AI comes for a second helping, just as the internet did?

And what, if that helping is even bigger?

THEN, I would rather have my finger on its pulse and know when it's time to grab the opportunity.

Coming from that perspective, I would not spill out the AI baby with the bathwater.

If your company did not yet make leaps forward, stay curious.

Keep your finger at the pulse of this AI baby.

Keep it IN the bathwater and care for it from time to time.

Nurture it, attend it, and look for it. At least from time to time.

Because MAYBE this baby will become a MIGHTY GIANT.

And if you're, you better have become acquainted with it early on.

Please let me know what you think!